There are a lot of bad strategies like never busting (never hit a 12+), mimicking the dealer and assume that the dealer has a 10 in the whole (with ace up). The problem with using any of these strategies is that they increase the house edge from 3 to 10 percent.
Blackjack is still the most popular table game in United States casinos. Craps and roulette are both popular, too, but blackjack has been growing in popularity since the 1960s.
But like most casino games, the number of myths and legends that have sprung up around the game of blackjack is staggering.
I’ve always contended that if you’re going to gamble, you want to do gamble in an intelligent way. This means dealing with reality. Luckily, when it comes to gambling, reality is something that can be quantified.
This means understanding some of the math behind the game. When researching this post, I read several posts from other sites which said you can succeed at blackjack with a minimal amount of math savvy.
I disagree with their assessment. I suppose you could figure out the right things to do without understanding the math, but I think understanding why you’re doing something is at least as important as understanding what you’re going.
This post’s purpose is to clear up the biggest misconceptions gamblers have about blackjack and provides you with the truth. When you understand the truth, you can take more intelligent action.
1. Blackjack Is the One Game in the Casino That a Smart Gambler Can Beat Just by Playing Smart
One of my favorite movies is Vegas Vacation. At one point during the movie, Clark explains to his son, Russ, that blackjack is the one game in the casino where a smart player can get a mathematical edge over the casino by just making the right decisions on each hand.
It’s true that smart players can get a mathematical edge over the casino playing blackjack, but this isn’t something you can do just sitting down and figuring out in your head the right way to play every hand. If you want to minimize the house edge, you can do this by using “basic strategy” to play your cards correctly.
But basic strategy isn’t something novices or even long-time players can just “figure out” while they’re playing. In fact, basic strategy varies based on game conditions.
Let’s talk about the house edge for a minute, though:
The house edge is the long-term average that the casino can expect to win from a player. It’s based on the difference between the odds of winning and the payout odds for the bets. The house edge is always expressed as a percentage.
For example, if you use basic strategy, most blackjack games—depending on the rules in use—have a house edge of between 0.5% and 1%.
This means that the casino expects to win 50 cents to $1 every time you bet $100. That’s an average over the long run, though—thousands and thousands of hands. In any individual session of blackjack, you can expect to see results that are different than this.
But even if you’re a skillful player, smart play only means you’re facing a smaller house edge than someone who plays dumb.
That’s not the same thing as having an edge over the casino.
2. Blackjack Is Rigged and Can’t Be Beat
I had a spirited debate with a friend of mine this weekend. He claims that ALL casino games are rigged and can’t be beat, with the exception of craps. And when he says they’re rigged, he means that the casino is cheating. This includes slot machines and blackjack.
The guy also believes the earth is flat. True story.
Anyway, blackjack is, in a sense, rigged. The math behind the game gives the house and edge over the player. This is true of every game in the casino.
But it’s not rigged in the sense that the casino can decide who wins or loses on the next hand or the next few hands.
It’s rigged in a mathematical, long-term sense. Your chances of winning a single session of blackjack are probably better than most other casino games.
And blackjack can be beat in the long run if you learn some advantage gambling techniques. These are more complicated than just learning basic strategy, though.
I’ll cover that more in the rest of this post.
3. Perfect Basic Strategy Will Give You a Mathematical Edge over the Casino
I touched on this briefly in point #1, but it’s important enough to go into more detail here. You should memorize basic strategy and always make the correct basic strategy decision on every hand you get in blackjack.
But you also need to know that this will NOT give you a mathematical edge over the casino.
The average casino blackjack player loses an average of 4% on every bet he makes at the table. If the house edge for the game is 0.5% to 1%, how does this happen?
It happens because most players don’t know basic strategy. And even some players who use basic strategy only use it some of the time. The rest of the time, they rely on hunches.
Every time you or another player deviates from the correct basic strategy, the casino gains some long term mathematical expectation.
Since the revenue reports for Las Vegas casinos are detailed and public information, we can see how well the casinos do at blackjack. And the reason they do so well is because players make so many mistakes at the table.
They always have the edge.
Where does this edge stem from in blackjack, by the way?
It’s simple.
Think about who gets to play their hand last. (Hint: it’s the dealer.)
What happens if you bust?
You immediately lose your bet, right?
When the dealer plays her hand and busts, you win. But if you’ve already busted, you’re no longer even in the game.
In a fair game, if you and the dealer both busted, it would be considered a “push” or a tie. You’d neither lose nor win money.
And that’s where the house gets its edge. No amount of perfect basic strategy can overcome that simple fact of game-play.
4. If You Learn How to Count Cards, You’ll Get Rich Playing Blackjack
You’ve probably figured out that perfect basic strategy isn’t enough to get an edge at blackjack, but if you learn to count cards, you can get a mathematical edge over the casino. This is true, but this doesn’t mean you’re automatically going to get rich counting cards. In fact, I’d venture a guess to say that NO ONE gets rich counting cards.
Here’s the basics of how card counting works:
The game’s odds change as the cards get dealt. The composition of the deck changes. Sometimes the deck will have more aces and 10s in it than normal.
When that happens, you have an edge over the casino, because you’re more likely to be dealt a blackjack—which pays off at 3 to 2.
Card counters track (roughly) the ratio of high cards to low cards in the deck, then they raise their bets when there are more high cards in the deck than you’d expect.
What does this require?
It requires a large bankroll to begin with.
And that still doesn’t guarantee a win in the short run.
In fact, even if you have an edge over the casino in blackjack because you’re counting cards, if you don’t have a big bankroll, you’re more likely to go broke than a basic strategy flat bettor.
To get the edge when counting cards, you must raise and lower your bets. This increases the volatility of the game.
This also has the effect of making most successful card counters rich to begin with—otherwise, they couldn’t afford to play with the wild swings in bet sizes that are necessary to get that mathematical edge we’re talking about.
5. Counting Cards Is Hard
If you’ve seen the movie Rain Man, you’d think you’d need to be able to memorize all the cards that have already been played so you’d be able to predict the next cards that are dealt. The Dustin Hoffman character in that movie is an “idiot savant” who’s able to do just that. His brother, played by Tom Cruise, is excited to be able to take advantage of that.
I’ve also seen memorization experts like Ron White explain how they’re able to memorize the sequence of a deck of cards. And it’s easier than you think once you learn the appropriate mnemonic techniques.
But the reality is that superhuman or exceptional feats of memorization aren’t at all necessary to count cards.
Card counters use a system to estimate this, and they do this by adding and subtracting 1 in their head as the cards are dealt. (Some systems are slightly more complicated, but that isn’t necessary.)
The easiest and most popular card counting system that most people start with is called the Hi Lo system. You start with a count of 0, then you add 1 to the count any time you see a card ranked 2, 3, 4, 5, or 6. You subtract 1 from the count any time you see an ace or a 10. (If you see a 7, 8, or 9, it doesn’t affect the count.)
You then range the size of your bets based on that count. If you start out betting a single unit (say $10, maybe), you raise the size of your bets in relation to the size of the count. Some players just use the number of units that corresponds to the count.
For example, if the count were +2, you’d bet $20. If it were +6, you’d bet $60.
If the count is 0 or lower, you’d just bet $10.
This gets more complicated with more decks in play. The system correlates well to the probabilities inherent in one deck, but if 2 decks or more are in play, the effect of each card is diluted. So you might need to convert the “running count” into a “true count”.
This just means you divide the count by the number of decks still in the shoe. This is more complicated, but it’s a darn sight less complicated than memorizing which cards have already been dealt.
Card counters also change their basic strategy based on the count. If the deck is richer in 10s than it ought to be, for example, insurance becomes a positive expectation bet instead of a negative expectation bet. Your chance of busting increases, too, in some situations.
Some counting systems are more complicated. They might start with a number other than 0, for example, or they might assign different values to the cards than just +1 or -1. Some systems keep a separate count of aces.
Even with all these optional complexities thrown in, card counting is far less difficult than memorizing which cards have been played.
In fact, anyone of average intelligence or better who’s willing to put in the effort can learn how to count cards.
6. Counting Cards Is Illegal
This is one of those blackjack myths that the casinos encourage. They’re not in the business of offering games where the players have an edge. So they do everything they can to discourage card counters and advantage players.
But think about it for a minute.
What does a card counter do?
Isn’t he just thinking about the game that he’s playing?
Blackjack Assume Dealer Has 10 000
How on earth could it be illegal to think about the game you’re playing?
If you’re using a device to keep track of the count, that’s one thing. It is illegal to use devices like that in the casino, at least in Nevada.
But even the craziest right-wing politicians still don’t try to outlaw thinking.
Card counting is legal, but casinos reserve the right to bar players from their blackjack games—or the casino itself—for engaging in the practice.
You can’t be arrested or go to jail for counting cards, though.
7. You Should Always Assume the Dealer Has a 10 in the Hole
There are more cards valued at 10 in the deck than any other value. There are 52 cards in a deck, and the 10s, jacks, queens, and kings are all worth 10 points each. That’s 16 cards that have a value of 10. The other 36 cards have a value other than 10.
16/52 is the same as 30.77%, so there’s a close to 1 in 3 chance that the dealer has a 10 in the hole. That’s a far sight from 50% or even 51%.
You can come close to making correct basic strategy decisions by assuming the dealer has a 10 in the hole, but you’ll still make some mistakes. In fact, when you do this, you’ll also often assume that the next card you’ll be dealt is a 10.
But the reality is that basic strategy assumes that the dealer has a 30.77% probability of having a 10 in the hole. The correct basic strategy decision in every situation is the decision with the best expected value for the player.
In some situations, that expected value is still negative. It’s just not as negative as the other options.
8. Mistakes by the Other Players Hurt Your Chances of Winning
This is the most obnoxious blackjack misconception of them all, and it’s pernicious. I’m acquainted with a woman who used to deal blackjack at the Winstar in Oklahoma. She’s a sweet lady, but she’s not the brightest in the world, and she’s absolutely convinced that another player’s mistake will hurt the other players.
I explained to her in detail how this isn’t true, but she refused to believe me.
The problem with this misconception is that it encourages players to berate and/or resent the other players at the table for playing badly. That’s too bad, because the players in blackjack aren’t competing with each other. (That’s poker.)
Let the other players play their hands however they want to. It doesn’t affect your probabilities.
9. You’re Eventually Going to Be Due to Win
This is an example of a common math mistake called the Gambler’s Fallacy. This is the belief that probabilities change over time so that the math can catch up with predicted results.
Here’s an example:
The dealer has won 9 hands in a row. You assume that the dealer can’t continue such a long winning streak, so you raise the size of your next bet, thinking that you’re “due” a win.
But assuming a freshly shuffled deck of cards, or any random deck of cards where you haven’t been counting cards, and your probability of winning is still a little under 50% but well over 45%.
With gambling games, each individual hand or round is an independent event. This is a little untrue of blackjack, because the composition of the deck changes, but wins don’t become “due” based on the number of wins or losses in a row.
Blackjack Assume Dealer Has 10 Years
The odds change based on the ratio of aces and 10s in the deck, but that’s a different matter. If you want to keep up with that, all you need to do is learn how to count cards.
10. Progressive Betting Systems Can Help You Win
A progressive betting system is one in which you raise the size of your bets based on how many times you’ve lost in a row. The classic example is the Martingale System, which is used most commonly at roulette. It’s also popular in blackjack and craps, though.
Here’s how it works:
When you lose a bet, you double the size of your next bet. If you lose again, you double the size of your bet again. You continue doubling the sizes of your bets until you eventually win.
This has the eventual effect of winning back your previous losses and giving you a one-unit profit.
Here’s an example:
You bet $10 on a hand of blackjack and bust. On the next hand, you bet $20. You win, so you’ve won back the $10 you lost on the previous hand, and you have a $10 profit.
Here’s another example that’s a little scarier:
You bet $10 and lose. Then you bet $20 and lose again. Then you bet $40 and lose again.
Now you need to bet $80 to recoup your losses and win.
You’ll eventually wind up needing to make a huge bet, one you can’t afford because your bankroll is too small. Or you’ll bump into the maximum bet that the casino will allow at the table.
This won’t happen often, but when it does, you’ll face a devastating loss that will wipe out all of the small ones you’ve seen prior to that.
Progressive betting systems are fun, but if you’re raising and lowering the sizes of your bets in blackjack, you should be doing so because you’re counting cards.
Conclusion
Blackjack is the most popular table game in the casino, but some of its popularity stems directly from some of the misconceptions that have become commonplace and accepted among players. I’m convinced that the best gamblers are the most well-informed gamblers, so I try to dispel misinformation when I see it.
If you can learn and implement basic strategy, you’ll be facing some of the best odds in the casino when you play blackjack. If you can learn to count cards, you can get an edge over the house. And that’s easier than most people think.
But the first step in playing smart blackjack is understanding good information from bad.